Introduction
In the ever-evolving world of crypto markets, one of the greatest challenges investors face is identifying macro tops before they occur. Enter the Pi Cycle Top Indicator—a deceptively simple yet historically reliable tool that has gained traction as one of the most accurate Bitcoin top predictors. It's not magic, but mathematics—and remarkably, it has nailed the peak of every major Bitcoin cycle within days.
In a market increasingly shaped by algorithmic trading, institutional inflows, and shifting macroeconomic policy, identifying reliable, real-time signals has never been more critical. With the emergence of ETFs and growing regulatory scrutiny, the crypto landscape is more complex than ever—making tools like this even more valuable.
In this article, we break down what the Pi Cycle Top Indicator is, how it works, its historical performance, and where it stands today.
What Is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator was created by Philip Swift in 2019 and relies on two key moving averages, which represent smoothed price trends over time:
111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): This line tracks the average closing price of Bitcoin over the past 111 days. It's more sensitive to recent price changes and reacts faster to market movements, offering insight into short- to mid-term trends.
2x the 350-Day Moving Average (350DMA x2): This is twice the value of the 350-day moving average, which smooths out price fluctuations over nearly a full year. It reflects the long-term trend and is slower to respond to recent volatility.
When the faster-moving 111DMA crosses above the slower 350DMA x2, it has historically signaled a market top within 3 days of the actual peak.
Why Is It Called the Pi Cycle Indicator?
The naming stems from the mathematical constant π (pi ≈ 3.14), as 350/111 ≈ π. While the name is clever, it's the empirical performance of the model that commands attention.
Historical Accuracy
Here's why the Pi Cycle Top Indicator stands out:
2013 Cycle: Called the top at ~$1,163 on November 30, 2013 — 1 day before the actual top of ~$1,166 on December 1, 2013.
2017 Cycle: Called the top at ~$19,640 on December 16, 2017 — 1 day before the actual top of ~$19,798 on December 17, 2017.
2021 Cycle: Called the local April top at ~$63,000 on April 12, 2021 — 2 days before the actual top of ~$64,863 on April 14, 2021.
In all cases (as you can see in the figure above) the cross of the 111DMA over the 2x350DMA occurred within a narrow window before the price began a sharp correction. Its predictive power lies in its simplicity and consistency.
Current Status (23rd June 2025)
As of the latest data:
111DMA: ~$94,557
2x 350DMA: ~$168,031
Bitcoin Price: ~$100,852
The 111DMA is currently below the 2x350DMA, but it is climbing quickly. If the upward trend continues, the crossover could occur in the coming months, potentially signaling the next macro top.
While it cannot predict the exact top ahead of time, it is often highly reliable in real time, making it one of the most effective confirmation tools available.
Rate of Convergence
Interestingly, the rate at which the two lines are converging is accelerating. This implies a potential crossover could occur sooner than expected, especially if Bitcoin maintains a strong uptrend.
What This Means for Investors
Not a Sell Signal: The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is not a timing tool for short-term trades. It is a high-level macro signal, ideal for long-term holders and cycle analysts.
Warning System: If and when the crossover happens, investors may want to reduce risk, reallocate, or prepare for a market reversal.
Real-Time Utility: The indicator is most useful not in hindsight but as a live alert when price action becomes euphoric and decouples from long-term trends.
How It Compares to Other Indicators
Most traditional indicators rely on momentum, sentiment, or volume. The Pi Cycle uses only price and time, yet it has outperformed many complex models in identifying peaks.
For best results, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator should be but one tool in your toolbox to enhance your risk management strategy rather than being used as a perfect timing device. It is most effective when paired with other indicators such as:
The Puell Multiple
MVRV-Z Score
Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss (RUPL)
Fear & Greed Index
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Deviation
These tools provide complementary views on market sentiment, investor behavior, and supply-side pressure.
Limitations
Misses Early Cycles: It doesn't apply well before Bitcoin had long enough price history to generate a 350-day average.
Not Foolproof: No indicator is perfect. While it's highly accurate historically, it should be used in conjunction with other tools and macro considerations.
New Market Variables: With ETF inflows, institutional influence, and rapid regulatory evolution, market dynamics may differ significantly from past cycles.
Conclusion
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a rare gem in crypto analytics—simple, transparent, and historically effective. While not predictive in the absolute sense, it provides a sharp lens into cycle psychology and market structure. With its current prediction of ~$168,300 as the cycle top, all eyes are on the charts.
However, as Bitcoin matures and adoption deepens, there are more variables in play than in past cycles. Institutional access via ETFs, a broader and more diverse holder base, and evolving macroeconomic conditions may influence market dynamics in new ways. While the historical accuracy of this indicator is impressive, whether this trend will continue remains to be seen.
Investors who understand this indicator may gain an edge in navigating crypto's volatile waters, knowing when the tide might turn—but they should do so with awareness of the changing landscape.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
